Key Statistics: 10th September 2013

Construction

• The Markit/CIPS Construction Purchasing Managers’ Index rose to 59.1 in August from 57.0 the month before (a figure above 50 indicates expansion). This signifies the strongest expansion in construction activity recorded by the CIPS suvey for six years. CIPS report that the rise was driven by increases in house building, the ‘commercial’ (non-residential) sector and in particular civil engineering. The CIPS data is based on a sample survey of purchasing managers at construction firms and can be volatile: Economists polled by Reuters had expected a slight slowing in the pace of growth.
• The Glenigan Index recorded a more muted performance. Despite a strengthening in private housing and an increase in civil engineering work, the Glenigan Index in August was little changed on a year ago. Gains in these areas was offset by a weakening in non-residential building, especially in government funded areas such as health and community & amenity, and by a drop in social housing starts. Overall the Index, covering the value of project starts during three months June to August, was 0.4% lower than during the same period of 2012.  
• The Glenigan Index and CIPS surveys are both leading indicators for construction activity and we are forecasting a progressive strengthening in project starts during remainder of this year and during 2014. However, the potential upturn is from a low base. Construction output is 16% below its previous (pre-financial crisis) peak and fell by 0.5% during the three months to June against the same period last year

UK Economy

• The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee at its meeting on 4 September voted to maintain the official Bank Rate paid on commercial bank reserves at 0.5%.  The Committee also voted to maintain the stock of asset purchases financed by the issuance of central bank reserves at £375 billion.
• UK retail sales values were up 1.8% on a like-for-like basis from August 2012, when they had decreased 0.4% on the preceding year. On a total basis, sales were up 3.6%, against a 1.6% increase in August 2012, according to the latest British Retail Consortium survey. While the growth was broad-based, the home categories were the best performers, rebounding from July while Food was the slowest category due to the tough comparatives during the Olympics last year.