Key Statistics: 15th March 2013

Construction

• The latest Glenigan / HBF Housing Pipeline report reveals that local authorities granted approvals for 45,041 new homes across England in Q4 of last year, up 62% year on year and 33% up on the previous quarter.
• House purchase lending recorded its highest January total since 2008, according to data released by the Council of Mortgage Lenders. Despite a seasonal monthly fall, house purchase lending increased by 11% compared to January last year. Driving this increase, first-time buyer and home mover activity rose compared to January last year (up by 24% and 3% respectively), while remortgage lending was still 23% lower than at the start of 2012.
• House prices dipped further in the three months ending in February, according to the latest RICS survey. However the RICS reported that the number of house sales was at its highest level in more than 2-1/2 years and a growing proportion of surveyors anticipate a strengthening in house prices during the year ahead.

UK Economy

• The ONS reported that on a seasonally adjusted basis,
• Production fell by 2.9% in January 2013 compared with January 2012.
• Manufacturing fell by 3.0% in January 2013 compared with January 2012. 
• Production fell by 1.2% between December 2012 and January 2013, whilst mining & quarrying fell by 2.4% and manufacturing fell by 1.5%.

• Economic forecasters NIESR has updated its monthly estimates of GDP, which show that,
• Economic output declined by 0.1 per cent in the three months ending in February after a decline of 0.2 per cent in the three months ending in January 2013.
• The estimates suggest that the economy continued to flat-line in the first two months of this year with the economy on the verge of a triple dip recession . 
• However, NIESR do expect the economy to expand this year. Its  latest quarterly forecast (published 5th February 2013) projects growth of 0.7 per cent per annum this year and 1.5 per cent in 2014.
• The latest data from the ONS points to a narrowing in the UK trade deficit as weak economic growth curbs the demand for imports.
• Seasonally adjusted, the UK’s deficit on trade in goods and services was estimated to have been £2.4 billion in January, compared with a deficit of £2.8 billion in December.
• here was a deficit of £8.2 billion on goods, partly offset by an estimated surplus of £5.8 billion on services. 
• Excluding oil and erratic items, the deficit on trade in goods was £21.8 billion in the three months to January 2013. This was £1.3 billion less than the preceding three months and £0.5 billion lower than the same period a year ago. 
• Export volumes (excluding oil and erratic’s) were unchanged in the latest three months; import volumes fell by 2.0% in the same period.
• The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.K. increased 0.4 per cent in January, after remaining unchanged in December 2012 and increasing 0.1 per cent in November. Five of the seven components made positive contributions to the index this month. The index now stands at 103.4 (2004=100).
• “The UK LEI increased in January and its moderately positive growth rate suggests the UK economy may grow slowly in 2013, after a dismal 2012,” says Brian Schaitkin, Economist for Europe with The Conference Board. “While business confidence and financial indicators have contributed to the recent improvements, declining retail sales and weak though somewhat improved consumer confidence remain constraints on growth.”
• The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI) for the U.K., a measure of current economic activity, declined 0.1 per cent in January,  after increasing 0.2 per cent in December 2012  and increasing 0.1 per cent in November 2012. The index now stands at 104.2 (2004 = 100).